Iterative Steps of Robust Decision Making
An Interactive Guide to Use of Methods for Decisionmaking Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) for U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Water Resources Planning
Mar 10, 2021 at 8:00am
Water Resources Planning Is Changing
Water resources planning is becoming more challenging as the era of simply expanding supply to meet demand is replaced by integrated resources management, which must account for limits on new sources, variability or changes in supply and demand outside historical ranges, and competing needs from different users and uses (such as environmental and recreational needs).
Although water resources managers have always considered variability in their planning, uncertainty about future variability is increasing. Recent climatic shifts are likely to continue to affect water resources management in significant—but uncertain—ways. Degradation of species habitat and associated policy responses add further considerations for water resource managers.
Decisionmaking Under Deep Uncertainty
The challenge of planning in the face of deeply uncertain future conditions has given rise to a growing collection of concepts, tools, and techniques that have been termed Decisionmaking Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) methods. Rather than predicting the most likely future or deriving a plan or strategy that would perform best on average, these approaches seek robust strategies (i.e., strategies that perform well across a wide range of plausible assumptions about the future). These approaches are generally adaptive and include near-term investments and policies, signposts to monitor, and deferred investments and policies. The identification and implementation of robust strategies (1) ensures that planners do not make irreversible and regrettable choices today, such as investing to develop a new supply that does not provide expected yields or is unnecessary, and (2) establishes an iterative approach for adapting as the future unfolds.
Robust Decision Making Approach
RDM, which originally was developed by RAND Corporation researchers and now is advanced by researchers worldwide, is a fairly general framework that can be tailored to incorporate aspects of different DMDU methods. At the heart of RDM, and all DMDU methods, is an iterative, participatory, sequence of steps.